Practical Considerations for Adaptation Pathways in Singapore
Written by Ismail Weiliang and ShanShan Wang, Water Business Lead for Singapore, Indonesia and Malaysia, Arup.
ISMAIL WEILIANG
The Climatebender
ShanShan Wang
Water Business Lead
Views are entirely ours
and not connected to any company
Uncertainty in Climate Projection
Considering the third national climate change study by the Centre of Climate Research Singapore (CCRS), projections indicate that Singapore's mean sea levels might rise by up to 1m by 2100 or even up to 4-5m considering factors like storm surges, higher tides, and land subsidence.
Climate Projections, whilst very useful, cannot provide absolute certainty about the future. This uncertainty can be debilitating for operation and investment decisions.
Sea Level Rise projection for South of Singapore (CCRS, 2024)
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Quick Take:
- Climate projections, whilst very useful, can’t provide absolute certainty about the future.
Managing Uncertainty
To reduce uncertainty, we adapt through adaptation pathways. In short, the essence of adaptation pathways is to provide a roadmap so that adaptation actions can be taken only at the right time and at the right scale. Following the adaptation pathways, decision makers can take a step-by-step approach to adapt to the changing climate, minimizing the upfront capital costs while providing sufficient protection for the assets.
A key characteristic of adaptation pathways is that the triggers for the decision points are scaled against a climate variable, such as sea-level rise, not time. Therefore, the pathway is independent of time, removing a large source of uncertainty - the timing of sea-level rise.
In spite of its elegance in theory, a number of practical considerations need to be thought through for adaptation pathways to be truly practical. By addressing these practical considerations, Singapore can develop adaptation pathways that are truly responsive, resilient, and aligned with the needs of its communities. The path forward may not be straightforward, but with careful planning and stakeholder engagement, Singapore can chart a course towards a more climate-resilient future.
Adaptation pathways map example (Haasnoot et al. 2013).
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Quick Take:
- Adaptation pathways enable decision makers to make progressive decisions given the uncertainty around climate impacts.
Practical Consideration #1 - Institutionalize the Plan
Adaptation pathways can only be useful if it can be followed through in the long-term. It therefore needs to be institutionalized so that it is periodically reviewed and updated.
Following IPCC’s assessment cycles, climate projections will need to be reviewed and updated. There could also be ongoing data collection and monitoring at the local level to determine when triggers may be reached. The terminology of “trigger” is probably misleading, as most of the climate parameters defined as triggers are statistical numbers, meaning that one-off observations tend to have little to tell decision makers whether the trigger has been reached. For example, if “10-year extreme sea level” reaching a certain number is defined as a trigger, seeing the sea level being higher than this limit at one time does not pull the trigger. Without taking statistical analysis of the extreme sea level observed during a certain period of the time, one cannot draw the conclusion. Therefore it is important that the adaptation pathway planning considers the lead time of conducting such retrospective studies and how long it may take to design and construct the adaptation measures.
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Quick Take:
- The lead time for trigger levels studies, adaptation measures design and construction time should be considered in the adaptation pathway planning.
Practical Consideration #2 - Communicating Uncertainty to the Wider Community
Ultimately, the success of adaptation pathways will depend on effective communication and engagement with a wide range of stakeholders, from policymakers to local residents.
In reality, most organizations budget their resources based on time, rather than any climate change indicators. Tying adaptation measures directly to sea level rise projections may not resonate with the public, who are more interested in understanding how their neighborhoods and daily lives will be impacted.
Adaptation pathways should be presented in a way that is accessible and meaningful to non-technical audiences. This may involve using standard financial years or other reference points that are more intuitive than abstract sea level rise figures. Ongoing public engagement and education will be crucial to building support and buy-in for adaptation efforts.
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Quick Take:
- Using standard financial years or meaningful reference points that are more intuitive than abstract sea level rise figures for public engagement.
Practical Consideration #3 - Incremental Build or Continuous Disruptions?
One of the touted benefits of adaptation pathways is the ability to implement incremental, modular measures that can be scaled up over time. However, the practical realities of construction and community impact can complicate this approach.
Frequent, small-scale interventions to raise seawalls or install new flood barriers may be disruptive to local communities and businesses. There could also be built-in inefficiency in designing infrastructure to be expanded incrementally. Adaptation pathways must balance the need for flexibility with the realities of construction timelines and community acceptance.
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Quick Take:
- Adaptation pathways must balance the need for flexibility with the realities of construction timelines and community acceptance.
These 3 practical considerations of 1) lead time, 2) public engagement and 3) ground realities need to be thought through for adaptation pathways to be truly practical. By addressing these practical considerations, Singapore can develop adaptation pathways that are truly responsive, resilient, and aligned with the needs of its communities!
Authors:
Shanshan Wang leads Arup’s water business in Singapore, Indonesia and Malaysia, focusing on the water challenges in the context of sustainability and resilience. Shanshan holds a master’s degree in environmental policy and is a Chartered Civil Engineer and Environmentalist.
Ismail Weiliang is a climate resilience consultant with half a decade of experience for climate risk advisory in Asia. He runs "The Climatebender” a non-profit organisation that enables climate finance for vulnerable communities impacted by the climate crisis.
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